By Ntambo Mabuza
After promising start to the year, the levels of optimism within the agricultural sector had dipped two consecutive quarters, before rebounding in the last quarter of 2025, according to the latest Agricultural Business Chamber (AgBiz) and Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI).
Officially released last Friday, 5 December, results of the latest survey showed that the ACI level had increased by 5 points to 67 in Quarter 4, with 50% being neutral and anything below that representing negative sentiment. Although still less than the 70 recorded in Quarter 1, the latest ACI adequately reflects the level of business confidence that continue to drive the performance of the sector.
According to AgBiz Chief Economist, Wandile Sihlobo, the ACI measures “how people are feeling” about where the sector is going over time. Undertaken in the last week of November, the Quarter 4 survey sampled at least 25 agribiz captains of industry on a basket of 10 business confidence indicators, ranging from capital investments, employment and export volumes.
“The one fundamental thing that many respondents came up with was the issue of favourable farming conditions. In Quarter 1, there were complaints about the quality of the grains that people were getting, but ultimately this did not get to be a major challenge as some people had anticipated,” said Sihlobo.
“The one fundamental thing that many respondents came up with was the issue of favourable farming conditions. In Quarter 1, there were complaints about the quality of the grains that people were getting, but ultimately this did not get to be a major challenge as some people had anticipated,” said Sihlobo.
The Grade 1 white maize, or WM1, he explained, which is usually about 92% of the harvest in a normal harvesting season, was about 66% this year. Yet, despite the worries this figure generated, the harvest ended up being the second largest maize crop in record, with most farmers buoyed by the resulting profits. Similarly, Sihlobo added, fruit and vegetables, among others, are doing well due to favourable rains.“It was really the God- given rain that delivered the good crop we had this year, as well as the efforts of the farmers,” said the AgBiz Chief Economist.
Moreover, there was also positive sentiments over export volumes, despite the controversies generated by the United States-led tariff wars, which grew by 32 points from Q3 to 75 in Quarter 4. In general, the efforts to improve the efficiencies of country’s ports, such as Durban and Port Elizabeth, made it possible for the sector to ride the global demand for agricultural products, Sihlobo explained.
Of the ten sub-indices that the ACI interrogated, eight were indicative of positive sentiment. Sihlobo explained that these were “not just feelings”, but were backed up by real life data. For instance, increased expenditure on machinery was reflected in the an 8% rise in the sale of combine harvesters during the first ten month of 2025 against the same period in 2024.
According to the AgBiz Chief Economist, while there are encouraging signs, the agricultural sector’s performance could have been even better. The periodic outbreaks of the foot and mouth disease (FMD) in the livestock sector, which makes up half of the farming economy, has had a crippling impact on trade. However, the decision to embark on the nation-wide vaccination that the Minister of Agriculture announced in November was well-received, as it signaled the intensification of the efforts to save the country’s roughly 12-million national herd of cattle, with 7.2 million of them in commercial production.
“In essence, the ACI results for Q4 2025 illustrate generally better conditions in the agricultural sector. Still, the recovery of the sector this year will likely be uneven. We see better production conditions in the horticulture and field crops. However, the livestock industry is under pressure due to foot-and-mouth disease,” Sihlobo said.
